New Evidence on Housing Wealth and Consumption Channels

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - This paper provides new evidence on the effect of housing wealth on consumption by focusing on the impact of home-equity extraction. We develop a...     

政策不确定性、财政扩张与区域商业银行风险——基于中国地方官员变更和银行业的证据

文章利用2007-2017年我国93家区域商业银行的面板数据，并结合省级宏观经济数据和地方官员变更数据，实证考察了中国地方官员变更引起的经济政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的重要影响。研究结果表明：（1）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性增大了区域商业银行风险；（2）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性，通过提高银行的资产收益率降低了商业银行风险；而不确定性时期的财政扩张，通过降低银行资产收益率增大了商业银行风险；并且财政扩张的负面影响大于政策不确定性的正面影响；（3）各省的市委书记发生职位更替引起的政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的影响更大。文章研究为新时代背景下的金融供给侧结构性改革、政府宏观经济政策的制定以及财政体制与金融体制之间的联系提供参考。     

Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War

This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.     

The Short-Selling Hypothesis of Weekend Effect and T + 1 Trading Mechanism

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets - Utilizing a difference-in-difference regression model, we conduct cross-sectional and time-series analysis to explore effect of short sales on the weekend effect in...     

Further Mining the Predictability of Moving Averages: Evidence from the US Stock Market

Most studies on the predictability of moving average (MA) technical analysis use the discrete (buy/sell) trading recommendations. However, it is possibly incomplete or unreliable to explore the predictability of MA by only employing its generated trading signals. To further explore the forecastability of MA, we study its measurable impact on the stock market returns by using a conventional predictive regression framework. Our empirical study on the US stock market with respect to more detailed price information finds, (i) that the proposed predictor, MADP (MA based on daily prices) shows significant predictability in‐ and out‐of‐sample, and significantly outperforms the historical average (HA) benchmark as well as the MA based on monthly prices, (ii) that the predictability of MADP centers on the short‐term lags (within the most recent 10 days) and disappears when lags are beyond 20 days, and (iii) that the economic evaluation of the portfolios based on trading strategies confirms the superior performance of MADP with short‐term lags against the benchmark even though considering transaction costs.     

Supply chain integration and operational performance: The contingency effects of production systems

The boundary conditions of supply chain integration (SCI) have been widely studied in order to find out when SCI is applicable and effective. However, prior studies have mainly focused on external contextual factors, such as supply complexity, environmental uncertainty and country-level infrastructure. This study contributes to the SCI literature by examining the contingency effects of internal production systems on the relationship between supplier integration, customer integration and operational performance. Based on organizational information processing theory, we provide evidence to show that the impact of supplier and customer integration on operational performance varies across production systems, such as one-of-a-kind production, batch production and mass production systems. The empirical results also reveal how supplier and customer integration can be matched with different configurations of production systems in order to achieve the desired quality, flexibility, delivery or cost performance.     

甘孜州农牧区县域发展水平综合评价与特征分析

[目的]对甘孜州各县市的发展状况进行研究探讨,为区域可持续发展策略的制定实施提供科学依据,对提升县域发展水平和发展质量具有重要意义。[方法]建立涵盖经济、社会、资源环境三大模块共计24项指标的评价体系,选取发展较快的2007—2014年为研究时段,运用极差法、改进熵值法、耦合协调度模型与GIS工具,对甘孜州各县市的发展水平进行综合评价与分析。[结果](1)全州综合发展水平指数平均值为0. 500 8,发展水平整体较低,其中康定市得分最高,石渠县最低,县市之间呈现两级分化。(2) 2007—2014年全州综合发展指数平均增幅0. 262 6,年均增速13. 77%,所有县市均处于上升过程,但县市之间增速不一,发展差距逐步扩大。(3)全州发展协调度平均值为0. 390 5,协调度较低,各县市均处于轻度失调或濒临失调水平。(4)发展水平、活力、协调度较高县市均集聚于州东部和南部,尤以东路片区最为典型。[结论]下一阶段需依据各县市实际,立足优势,制定实施合理的发展规划,缩小区域差异,提升综合发展水平。     

荣成渔家游

有着"中国第一渔业大县"称号的荣成市,现在又打响了旅游牌.这里有天尽头、圣水观、九顶铁槎山等自然景观,也有民俗村、牧云庵画村、南车花村等人文景观.荣成市对此采取了"谁投资、谁开发、谁受益"的多元文化旅游经营模式,全面动员农户、山村、渔企卖起了"风景画"、念起了"山海经",激活了文化旅游市场,带起了10万农民从事文化旅游业.2003年,荣成市年接待游客260万人次,年实现旅游收入8亿元.     

艾家湾作业区精细化管理的探索与实践

长庆油田公司第四采油厂艾家湾作业区将企业管理理论与示范油田（井区）建设紧密结合、大胆实践。按照“精细化管理、专业化运作、科学化生产、规范化开发”的新思路，在不断分析、总结、提高的基础上，破解了一个个制约老油田稳产的技术“瓶颈”，探索出了一条符合绥靖油田开发特点，独具特色的新路子，逐步形成了一套系统的具有特色的基层精细化管理方法，进一步丰富了“采四发展模式”的内涵，实现了老油田综合效益稳步攀升和良性运行，并奠定了老油田精细化管理的基础。